How mobility habits influenced the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the Italian case study
Data
2020Autor
Cartenì, Armando
Di Francesco, Luigi
Martino, Maria
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Resumo
Starting from December 2019 the world has faced an unprecedented health crisis caused by the new Coronavirus
(COVID-19) due to the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. Within this topic, the aim of the paper was to quantify the effect of
mobility habits in the spread of the Coronavirus in Italy through a multiple linear regression model. Estimation
results showed that mobility habits represent one of the variables that explains the number of COVID-19 infections jointly with the number of tests/day and some environmental variables (i.e. PM pollution and temperature).
Nevertheless, a proximity variable to the first outbreak was also significant, meaning that the areas close to the
outbreak had a higher risk of contagion, especially in the initial stage of infection (time-decay phenomena). Furthermore, the number of daily new cases was related to the trips performed three weeks before. This threshold of
21 days could be considered as a sort of positivity detection time, meaning that the mobility restrictions quarantine
commonly set at 14 days, defined only according to incubation-based epidemiological considerations, is
underestimated (possible delays between contagion and detection) as a containment policy and may not always
contribute to effectively slowing down the spread of virus worldwide. This result is original and, if confirmed in
other studies, will lay the groundwork for more effective containment of COVID-19 in countries that are still in
the health emergency, as well as for possible future returns of the virus.
Palabras clave
SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus; Pandemic; Mobility; Transport accessibilityLink para o recurso
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140489Collections
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