Bogotá, Colombia
Castañeda, Mónica
Franco, Carlos J.
Dyner, Isaac
2020-05-11T20:43:42Z
2020-05-11T20:43:42Z
2017
1364-0321
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.179
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/9280
The technology shift from fossil-fuelled systems to renewable energies has been promoted by governments with
the purpose of decarbonising the power industry. However, rapid technology progress has prompted disruptive
changes that transformed market structures. Incumbent electricity utilities, particularly those based on fossilfuel
plant, are shifting from their stable and predictable situation to confront challenges from those that offer
alternative energy services. In this new environment, the industry will benefit from mid- to long-term sector
foresight.
The paper studies the potential impact of renewable energy sources (RES) on electricity systems, specifically
on the generation and distribution businesses. For this purpose, a fairly detailed and integrated supply and
demand-based system dynamics model has been built to quantify the extent of their potential impact; the model
disaggregates the household sector, which may generate a significant part of its electricity using rooftop solar
energy. This is illustrated by examining a utility engaged in the generation and distribution businesses in the
Colombian electricity market. Through simulation runs, this paper concludes that, subject to policy and all other
things remaining equal, solar rooftop generation is a major threat for utilities; while the generation business is
most affected in the short-term, the distribution business is the one most impacted in the long-term, and jointly
they may induce the utility “death spiral”.
11 páginas
image/jepg
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Electricity utilities
Renewables
Death spiral
System dynamics
Evaluating the effect of technology transformation on the electricity utility industry
Artículo
Industrias de energía -- Investigaciones
Recursos energéticos renovables
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
Abierto (Texto Completo)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.179
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
reponame:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
info:eu-repo/semantics/article