Zhang, Lei
Tao, Yusha
Wang, Jing
Ong, Jason J.
Tang, Weiming
Zou, Maosheng
Bai, Lu
Ding, Miao
Shen, Mingwang
Zhuang, Guihua
Fairley, Christopher K.
2020-07-17T19:27:56Z
2020-07-17T19:27:56Z
2020
1201-9712
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10791
Objectives: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique
opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predictits subsequent
magnitude.
Methods: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from
16th January–15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the
correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude.
Results: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI,
4.6–6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition.
The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was
6.6 (5.3–7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8%
(0.2–1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of
these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and
found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size.
Conclusions: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.
6 páginas
application/pdf
Science Direct
reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
COVID-19
SARS-COV-2
Early characteristics
Epidemic size
Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope
Artículo
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122