Jahangiri, Mehdi
Jahangiri, Milad
Najafgholipour, Mohammadamir
2020-07-13T16:14:07Z
2020-07-13T16:14:07Z
2020
0048-9697
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138872
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10440
On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery
cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be
considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics
(ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends
to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces
of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT
and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirm that AT and PS have low sensibility and high sensitivity, respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates is less than that of moderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinces with a
population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management
policy
5 páginas
image/jepg
Science Direct
reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Sensitivity analysis
Ambient temperature
Population size
Novel coronavirus disease
ROC
The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran
Artículo
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138872