Modeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreak

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dc.creatorTsay, Calvin
dc.creatorLejarza, Fernando
dc.creatorStadtherr, Mark A.
dc.creatorBaldea, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-21T22:00:05Z
dc.date.available2020-07-21T22:00:05Z
dc.date.created2020-07-01
dc.description.abstractenglishThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive testing, and quarantining of confirmed infected subjects remain the most effective measures to contain the pandemic. These measures carry a significant socioeconomic cost. In this work, we introduce a novel optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. This includes modeling the dynamics of affected populations, estimating the model parameters and hidden states from data, and an optimal control strategy for sequencing social distancing and testing events such that the number of infections is minimized. The analysis of our extensive computational efforts reveals that social distancing and quarantining are most effective when implemented early, with quarantining of confirmed infected subjects having a much higher impact. Further, we find that “on-off” policies alternating between strict social distancing and relaxing such restrictions can be effective at “flattening” the curve while likely minimizing social and economic cost.spa
dc.format.extent12 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67459-8spa
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67459-8#article-infospa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10910
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19 -- Estados Unidosspa
dc.subject.keywordCOVID-19 -- United Statesspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleModeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreakspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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