Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil

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dc.creatorReis, Ruy Freitas
dc.creatorde Melo Quintela, Bárbara
dc.creatorde Oliveira Campos, Joventino
dc.creatorGomes, Johnny Moreira
dc.creatorRocha, Bernardo Martins
dc.creatorLobosco, Marcelo
dc.creatorWeber dos Santos, Rodrigo
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-25T21:11:51Z
dc.date.available2020-08-25T21:11:51Z
dc.date.created2020-07
dc.description.abstractenglishBy April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.spa
dc.format.extent9 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888spa
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalsspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessspa
dc.rights.localAcceso restringidospa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectEpidemiologíaspa
dc.subjectModelos matemáticosspa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemiologyspa
dc.subject.keywordMathematical modelingspa
dc.subject.keywordUncertainty quantificationspa
dc.subject.keywordSensitivity analysisspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleCharacterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazilspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501spa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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