A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorSoukhovolsky, Vladislav
dc.creatorKovalev, Anton
dc.creatorPitt, Anne
dc.creatorKessel, Boris
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-25T14:56:38Z
dc.date.available2020-07-25T14:56:38Z
dc.date.created2020-10
dc.description.abstractenglishА model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health.spa
dc.format.extent6 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110039spa
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304379?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11147
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalseng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectEpidemiasspa
dc.subjectModelos matemáticosspa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicsspa
dc.subject.keywordInfection diseasespa
dc.subject.keywordModellingspa
dc.subject.keywordMathematics modelspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleA new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemicspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

Archivos

Bloque original

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura
Nombre:
A-new-modelling-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic_2020_Chaos--Solitons---Fractals.pdf
Tamaño:
916.02 KB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Descripción:
Documento reservado
Descargar

Bloque de licencias

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura
Nombre:
license.txt
Tamaño:
2.87 KB
Formato:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Descripción:
Descargar

Colecciones

Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19

Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57) 601 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57) 601 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

Software DSpace copyright © 2002-2026 LYRASIS