Geospatial analysis of COVID-19 and otolaryngologists above age 60

Abstract

Objective: The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is disproportionately impacting older individuals and healthcare workers. Otolaryngologists are especially susceptible with the elevated risk of aerosolization and corresponding high viral loads. This study utilizes a geospatial analysis to illustrate the comparative risks of older otolaryngologists across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and materials: Demographic and state population data were extracted from the State Physician Workforce Reports published by the AAMC for the year 2018. A geospatial heat map of the United States was then constructed to illustrate the location of COVID-19 confirmed case counts and the distributions of ENTs over 60 years for each state. Results: In 2018, out of a total of 9578 practicing U.S. ENT surgeons, 3081 were older than 60 years (32.2%). The states with the highest proportion of ENTs over 60 were Maine, Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. The states with the highest ratios of confirmed COVID-19 cases to the number of total ENTs over 60 were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Conclusions: Based on our models, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Michigan represent states where older ENTs may be the most susceptible to developing severe complications from nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 due to a combination of high COVID-19 case volumes and a high proportion of ENTs over 60 years.