Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

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dc.creatorFlaxman, Seth
dc.creatorMishra, Swapnil
dc.creatorGandy, Axel
dc.creatorUnwin, H. Juliette T.
dc.creatorMellan, Thomas A.
dc.creatorCoupland, Helen
dc.creatorWhittaker, Charles
dc.creatorZhu, Harrison
dc.creatorBerah, Tresnia
dc.creatorEaton, Jeffrey W.
dc.creatorMonod, Mélodie
dc.creatorPerez-Guzman, Pablo N.
dc.creatorSchmit, Nora
dc.creatorCilloni, Lucia
dc.creatorAinslie, Kylie E.C.
dc.creatorBaguelin, Marc
dc.creatorBoonyasiri, Adhiratha
dc.creatorBoyd, Olivia
dc.creatorCattarino, Lorenzo
dc.creatorCooper, Laura V.
dc.creatorCucunubá, Zulma
dc.creatorCuomo-Dannenburg, Gina
dc.creatorDighe, Amy
dc.creatorDjaafara, Bimandra
dc.creatorDorigatti, Ilaria
dc.creatorvan Elsland, Sabine L.
dc.creatorFitzJohn, Richard G.
dc.creatorGaythorpe, Katy A.M.
dc.creatorGeidelberg, Lily
dc.creatorGrassly, Nicholas C.
dc.creatorGreen, William D.
dc.creatorHallett, Timothy
dc.creatorHamlet, Arran
dc.creatorHinsley, Wes
dc.creatorJeffrey, Ben
dc.creatorKnock, Edward
dc.creatorLaydon, Daniel J.
dc.creatorNedjati-Gilani, Gemma
dc.creatorNouvellet, Pierre
dc.creatorParag, Kris V.
dc.creatorSiveroni, Igor
dc.creatorThompson, Hayley A.
dc.creatorVerity, Robert
dc.creatorVolz, Erik
dc.creatorWalters, Caroline E.
dc.creatorWang, Haowei
dc.creatorWang, Yuanrong
dc.creatorWatson, Oliver J.
dc.creatorWinskill, Peter
dc.creatorXi, Xiaoyue
dc.creatorWalker, Patrick Gt
dc.creatorGhani, Azra C.
dc.creatorDonnelly, Christl A
dc.creatorRiley, Steven M.
dc.creatorVollmer, Michaela A.C.
dc.creatorFerguson, Neil M.
dc.creatorOkell, Lucy C.
dc.creatorBhatt, Samir
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-17T23:29:38Z
dc.date.available2020-07-17T23:29:38Z
dc.date.created2020-06-08
dc.description.abstractenglishFollowing the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that—for all of the countries we consider here—current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt < 1.0 is greater than 99%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions—and lockdowns in particular—have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.spa
dc.format.extent18 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7spa
dc.identifier.issn1476-4687spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10821
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectIntervenciones no farmacéuticasspa
dc.subject.keywordNon-pharmaceutical interventionsspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleEstimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europespa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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