Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: From mathematical modelling perspective

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dc.creatorKassa, Semu M.
dc.creatorNjagarah, John B.H.
dc.creatorTerefe, Yibeltal A.
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-27T20:43:09Z
dc.date.available2020-07-27T20:43:09Z
dc.date.created2020-09
dc.description.abstractenglishIn this article, a mathematical model for the transmission of COVID-19 disease is formulated and analysed. It is shown that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation at when recovered individuals do not develop a permanent immunity for the disease. In the absence of reinfection, it is proved that the model is without backward bifurcation and the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for . By using available data, the model is validated and parameter values are estimated. The sensitivity of the value of to changes in any of the parameter values involved in its formula is analysed. Moreover, various mitigation strategies are investigated using the proposed model and it is observed that the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals may play the major role in the re-emergence of the disease in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that in the absence of vaccination, countries need to develop capacities to detect and isolate at least 30% of the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals while treating in isolation at least 50% of symptomatic patients to control the disease.spa
dc.format.extent16 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109968spa
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920303672?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11230
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalseng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectModelo epidemiológicospa
dc.subjectProtección personalspa
dc.subjectUmbral de la enfermedadspa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemiological modelspa
dc.subject.keywordSelf-protectionspa
dc.subject.keywordDisease thresholdspa
dc.subject.keywordBackward bifurcationspa
dc.subject.keywordSensitivity analysisspa
dc.subject.keywordMitigation strategyspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleAnalysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: From mathematical modelling perspectivespa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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