A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control

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dc.creatorMandal, Manotosh
dc.creatorJana, Soovoojeet
dc.creatorNandi, Swapan Kumar
dc.creatorKhatua, Anupam
dc.creatorAdak, Sayani
dc.creatorKar, T. K.
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-25T14:49:51Z
dc.date.available2020-07-25T14:49:51Z
dc.date.created2020-07
dc.description.abstractenglishAs there is no vaccination and proper medicine for treatment, the recent pandemic caused by COVID-19 has drawn attention to the strategies of quarantine and other governmental measures, like lockdown, media coverage on social isolation, and improvement of public hygiene, etc to control the disease. The mathematical model can help when these intervention measures are the best strategies for disease control as well as how they might affect the disease dynamics. Motivated by this, in this article, we have formulated a mathematical model introducing a quarantine class and governmental intervention measures to mitigate disease transmission. We study a thorough dynamical behavior of the model in terms of the basic reproduction number. Further, we perform the sensitivity analysis of the essential reproduction number and found that reducing the contact of exposed and susceptible humans is the most critical factor in achieving disease control. To lessen the infected individuals as well as to minimize the cost of implementing government control measures, we formulate an optimal control problem, and optimal control is determined. Finally, we forecast a short-term trend of COVID-19 for the three highly affected states, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu, in India, and it suggests that the first two states need further monitoring of control measures to reduce the contact of exposed and susceptible humans.spa
dc.format.extent12 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109889spa
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302897?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11146
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalseng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectEpidemiología teóricaspa
dc.subject.keywordTheoretical epidemiologyspa
dc.subject.keywordBasic reproduction numberspa
dc.subject.keywordTranscritical bifurcationspa
dc.subject.keywordBang-bang and singular controlspa
dc.subject.keywordShort term prediction of COVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleA model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and controlspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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