A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities

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dc.creatorCooper, Ian
dc.creatorMondal, Argha
dc.creatorAntonopoulos, Chris G.
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-27T16:47:37Z
dc.date.available2020-07-27T16:47:37Z
dc.date.created2020-10
dc.description.abstractenglishIn this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to investigate its spread within a community. Here, the model is based upon the well-known susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with the difference that a total population is not defined or kept constant per se and the number of susceptible individuals does not decline monotonically. To the contrary, as we show herein, it can be increased in surge periods! In particular, we investigate the time evolution of different populations and monitor diverse significant parameters for the spread of the disease in various communities, represented by China, South Korea, India, Australia, USA, Italy and the state of Texas in the USA. The SIR model can provide us with insights and predictions of the spread of the virus in communities that the recorded data alone cannot. Our work shows the importance of modelling the spread of COVID-19 by the SIR model that we propose here, as it can help to assess the impact of the disease by offering valuable predictions. Our analysis takes into account data from January to June, 2020, the period that contains the data before and during the implementation of strict and control measures. We propose predictions on various parameters related to the spread of COVID-19 and on the number of susceptible, infected and removed populations until September 2020. By comparing the recorded data with the data from our modelling approaches, we deduce that the spread of COVID-19 can be under control in all communities considered, if proper restrictions and strong policies are implemented to control the infection rates early from the spread of the disease.spa
dc.format.extent14 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110057spa
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304549?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11185
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalseng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectEnfermedades infecciosasspa
dc.subject.keywordPandemicspa
dc.subject.keywordInfectious diseasespa
dc.subject.keywordVirus spreadingspa
dc.subject.keywordSIR modelspa
dc.subject.keywordForecastingspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleA SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communitiesspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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