A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action

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dc.creatorLin, Qianying
dc.creatorZhao, Shi
dc.creatorGao, Daozhou
dc.creatorLou, Yijun
dc.creatorYang, Shu
dc.creatorMusa, Salihu S.
dc.creatorWang, Maggie H.
dc.creatorCai, Yongli
dc.creatorWang, Weiming
dc.creatorYang, Lin
dc.creatorHe, Daihai
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-23T18:01:08Z
dc.date.available2020-07-23T18:01:08Z
dc.date.created2020-04
dc.description.abstractenglishThe ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.spa
dc.format.extent6 paginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058spa
dc.identifier.issn1201-9712spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122030117Xspa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11053
dc.publisherInternational Journal of Infectious Diseaseseng
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectModelo matemáticospa
dc.subject.keywordCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicspa
dc.subject.keywordMathematical modellingspa
dc.subject.keywordIndividual reactionspa
dc.subject.keywordGovernmental actionspa
dc.subject.keywordCity lockdownspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleA conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental actionspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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