The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

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dc.creatorBertuzzo, Enrico
dc.creatorMari, Lorenzo
dc.creatorPasetto, Damiano
dc.creatorMiccoli, Stefano
dc.creatorCasagrandi, Renato
dc.creatorGatto, Marino
dc.creatorRinaldo, Andrea
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-19T17:31:10Z
dc.date.available2020-09-19T17:31:10Z
dc.date.created2020-08-26
dc.description.abstractenglishThe pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.spa
dc.format.extent11 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2spa
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18050-2spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/13492
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherNature Communicationsspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccessspa
dc.rights.localAcceso restringidospa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectThe geography of COVID-19spa
dc.subjectconfinement measuresspa
dc.subjectinfectionsspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.titleThe geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measuresspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501spa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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