Clean and secure power supply: A system dynamics based appraisal
Fecha
2019Autor
Zapata, Sebastian
Castañeda, Mónica
Franco, Carlos Jaime
Dyner, Isaac
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Across the world, the electricity industry is changing with the advent of renewable energy sources such as solar
and wind power. As these are exposed to intermittency, seasonality, and global-climate-variation, policy-makers'
concerns are now shifting towards security of supply. In fact, the industry confronts three conflicting goals:
security of supply, competitive prices to customers, and environmental protection. In this context, and given the
multiple uncertainties of technology transformation, this paper uses modelling-based scenario analysis to investigate different extreme and plausible futures. Simulation is used to analyse policies aimed at increasing the
penetration of renewables and to explore how these energy sources may affect system reliability. This paper
explores the effect of incorporating renewables in Colombia, where a large hydroelectric component has led to
insufficient electricity being available during droughts and to high electricity price volatility. Though not intuitive at first glance, this paper shows that renewables may contribute to: i) increased security of supply through
complementarity, e.g., it does not rain when the sun shines; ii) reduced price volatility in the medium-term, and
iii) increased industry sustainability.
Palabras clave
Dinámica de sistemasColecciones
- Año 2019 [125]
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