Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase
Date
2020Author
Wang, Liang
Didelot, Xavier
Yang, Jing
Wong, Gary
Shi, Yi
Liu, Wenjun
Gao, George F.
Bi, Yuhai
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei
Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is
unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has
been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARSCoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-toperson transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred
transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are
individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results
showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the
COVID-19 outbreak
Link to resource
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4Collections
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