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dc.creatorHogan, Alexandra B
dc.creatorJewell, Britta L
dc.creatorSherrard-Smith, Ellie
dc.creatorVesga, Juan F
dc.creatorWatson, Oliver J
dc.creatorWhittaker, Charles
dc.creatorHamlet, Arran
dc.creatorSmith, Jennifer A
dc.creatorWinskill, Peter
dc.creatorVerity, Robert
dc.creatorBaguelin, Marc
dc.creatorLees, John A
dc.creatorWhittles, Lilith K
dc.creatorAinslie, Kylie E C
dc.creatorBhatt, Samir
dc.creatorBoonyasiri, Adhiratha
dc.creatorBrazeau, Nicholas F
dc.creatorCattarino, Lorenzo
dc.creatorCooper, Laura V
dc.creatorCoupland, Helen
dc.creatorCuomo-Dannenburg, Gina
dc.creatorDighe, Amy
dc.creatorDjaafara, Bimandra A
dc.creatorDonnelly, Christl A
dc.creatorEaton, Jeff W
dc.creatorElsland, Sabine L van
dc.creatorFitzJohn, Richard G
dc.creatorFu, Han
dc.creatorGaythorpe, Katy A M
dc.creatorGreen, William
dc.creatorHaw, David J
dc.creatorHayes, Sarah
dc.creatorHinsley, Wes
dc.creatorImai, Natsuko
dc.creatorLaydon, Daniel J
dc.creatorMangal, Tara D
dc.creatorMellan, Thomas A
dc.creatorMishra, Swapnil
dc.creatorNedjati-Gilani, Gemma
dc.creatorParag, Kris V
dc.creatorThompson, Hayley A
dc.creatorUnwin, H Juliette T
dc.creatorVollmer, Michaela A C
dc.creatorWalters, Caroline E
dc.creatorWang, Haowei
dc.creatorWang, Yuanrong
dc.creatorXi, Xiaoyue
dc.creatorFerguson, Neil M
dc.creatorOkell, Lucy C
dc.creatorChurcher, Thomas S
dc.creatorArinaminpathy, Nimalan
dc.creatorGhani, Azra C
dc.creatorWalker, Patrick G T
dc.creatorHallett, Timothy B
dc.description.abstractBackground COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research
dc.format.extent10 páginasspa
dc.publisherThe Lancetspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectPandemic on HIVspa
dc.subjectModelling studyspa
dc.titlePotential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling studyspa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.rights.localAbierto (Texto Completo)spa

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