• español
    • English
    • português
  • English 
    • español
    • English
    • português
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
RecursosRecursos de apoyo¿Cómo publicar?

Browse

All of ExpeditioCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects
This CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

View Usage StatisticsView Google Analytics Statistics
Estadísticas GTMVer Estadísticas GTM

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Thumbnail

Citación

       
Export: <XML METS>
Date
2020
Author
Hogan, Alexandra B
Jewell, Britta L
Sherrard-Smith, Ellie
Vesga, Juan F
Watson, Oliver J
Whittaker, Charles
Hamlet, Arran
Smith, Jennifer A
Winskill, Peter
Verity, Robert
Baguelin, Marc
Lees, John A
Whittles, Lilith K
Ainslie, Kylie E C
Bhatt, Samir
Boonyasiri, Adhiratha
Brazeau, Nicholas F
Cattarino, Lorenzo
Cooper, Laura V
Coupland, Helen
Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina
Dighe, Amy
Djaafara, Bimandra A
Donnelly, Christl A
Eaton, Jeff W
Elsland, Sabine L van
FitzJohn, Richard G
Fu, Han
Gaythorpe, Katy A M
Green, William
Haw, David J
Hayes, Sarah
Hinsley, Wes
Imai, Natsuko
Laydon, Daniel J
Mangal, Tara D
Mellan, Thomas A
Mishra, Swapnil
Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma
Parag, Kris V
Thompson, Hayley A
Unwin, H Juliette T
Vollmer, Michaela A C
Walters, Caroline E
Wang, Haowei
Wang, Yuanrong
Xi, Xiaoyue
Ferguson, Neil M
Okell, Lucy C
Churcher, Thomas S
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Ghani, Azra C
Walker, Patrick G T
Hallett, Timothy B
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
Background COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14080
Link to resource
https://doi.org/10.1016/
Collections
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19 [2292]
Estadísticas Google Analytics
Comments

Respuesta Comentario Repositorio Expeditio

Gracias por tomarse el tiempo para darnos su opinión.


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas

 

 


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas