Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries
Fecha
2020Autor
Pan, Jinhua
Yao, Ye
Liu, Zhixi
Meng, Xia
Ji, John S.
Qiu, Yang
Wang, Weidong
Zhang, Lina
Wang, Weibing
Kan, Haidong
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Resumen
Purpose: To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind
speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19.
Methods: We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.We used a time-frequency approach
to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of
COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple
linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposedinfectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China
under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions.
Principal results: Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also,
relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p =
0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide
range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not change substantially.
Palabras clave
SARS-CoV-2; Meteorological factors; Temperature; Ultraviolet radiationEnlace al recurso
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142272Colecciones
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