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dc.creatorBarda, Noam
dc.creatorRiesel, Dan
dc.creatorAkriv, Amichay
dc.creatorLevy, Joseph
dc.creatorFinkel, Uriah
dc.creatorYona, Gal
dc.creatorGreenfeld, Daniel
dc.creatorSheiba, Shimon
dc.creatorSomer, Jonathan
dc.creatorBachmat, Eitan
dc.creatorRothblum, Guy N.
dc.creatorShalit, Uri
dc.creatorNetzer, Doron
dc.creatorBalicer, Ran
dc.creatorDagan, Noa
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-18T15:02:20Z
dc.date.available2020-09-18T15:02:20Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn1546-170Xspa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/13451
dc.description.abstractAt the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.spa
dc.format.extent9 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherNature communicationsspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectMortality riskspa
dc.subjectPrediction modelspa
dc.titleDeveloping a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not availablespa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.rights.localAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9spa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1spa


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