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dc.creatorKırbaş, İsmail
dc.creatorSözen, Adnan
dc.creatorTuncer, Azim Doğuş
dc.creatorKazancıoğlu, Fikret Şinasi
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-31T16:56:36Z
dc.date.available2020-08-31T16:56:36Z
dc.date.created2020-09
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304136?via%3Dihubspa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12470
dc.format.extent7 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalsspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.titleComparative analysis and forecasting of COVID-19 cases in various European countries with ARIMA, NARNN and LSTM approachesspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.rights.localAcceso restringidospa
dc.subject.keywordForecastingspa
dc.subject.keywordARIMAspa
dc.subject.keywordNARNNspa
dc.subject.keywordLSTMspa
dc.subject.keywordModelingspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110015spa
dc.description.abstractenglishIn this study, confirmed COVID-19 cases of Denmark, Belgium, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Finland, Switzerland and Turkey were modeled with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Nonlinear Autoregression Neural Network (NARNN) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) approaches. Six model performance metric were used to select the most accurate model (MSE, PSNR, RMSE, NRMSE, MAPE and SMAPE). According to the results of the first step of the study, LSTM was found the most accurate model. In the second stage of the study, LSTM model was provided to make predictions in a 14-day perspective that is yet to be known. Results of the second step of the study shows that the total cumulative case increase rate is expected to decrease slightly in many countries.spa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501spa


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