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dc.creatorGilbert, Marius
dc.creatorPullano, Giulia
dc.creatorPinotti, Francesco
dc.creatorValdano, Eugenio
dc.creatorPoletto, Chiara
dc.creatorBoëlle, Pierre-Yves
dc.creatorD’Ortenzio, Eric
dc.creatorYazdanpanah, Yazdan
dc.creatorEholie, Serge Paul
dc.creatorAltmann, Mathias
dc.creatorGutierrez, Bernardo
dc.creatorKraemer, Moritz U G
dc.creatorColizza, Vittoria
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-18T19:28:23Z
dc.date.available2020-08-18T19:28:23Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11934
dc.description.abstractBackground The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country’s health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19. Methods We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country’s capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. Findings Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. Interpretation Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. Funding EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherchespa
dc.format.extent7 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeimage/jepgspa
dc.publisherThe Lancetspa
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectModelling studyspa
dc.subjectVulnerabilityspa
dc.titlePreparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling studyspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.rights.localAcceso restringidospa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/spa


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