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dc.contributor.advisorAlabi, Olusegun O.
dc.creatorAyinde, Kayode
dc.creatorLukman, Adewale F.
dc.creatorRauf, Rauf I.
dc.creatorOkon, Charles E.
dc.creatorAyinde, Opeyemi E.
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-31T19:50:40Z
dc.date.available2020-07-31T19:50:40Z
dc.date.created2020-05-17
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920303118?via%3Dihub#keys0001spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11488
dc.format.extent16 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons & Fractalseng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCurve Estimation Statistical Modelsspa
dc.subjectQuartic Linear Regression Modelspa
dc.subjectEstimatorsspa
dc.subjectForecast Valuesspa
dc.titleModeling Nigerian Covid-19 cases: A comparative analysis of models and estimatorsspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109911spa
dc.description.abstractenglishCOVID-19 remains a major pandemic currently threatening all the countries of the world. In Nigeria, there were 1, 932 COVID-19 confirmed cases, 319 discharged cases and 58 deaths as of 30th April 2020. This paper, therefore, subjected the daily cumulative reported COVID-19 cases of these three variables to nine (9) curve estimation statistical models in simple, quadratic, cubic, and quartic forms. It further identified the best of the thirty-six (36) models and used the same for prediction and forecasting purposes. The data collected by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control for sixty-four (64) days, two (2) months and three (3), were daily monitored and eventually analyzed. We identified the best models to be Quartic Linear Regression Model with an autocorrelated error of order 1 (AR(1)); and found the Ordinary Least Squares, Cochrane Orcutt, Hildreth–Lu, and Prais-Winsten and Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) estimators useful to estimate the models’ parameters. Consequently, we recommended the daily cumulative forecast values of the LAD estimator for May and June 2020 with a 99% confidence level. The forecast values are alarming, and so, the Nigerian Government needs to hastily review her activities and interventions towards COVID-19 to provide some tactical and robust structures and measures to avert these challenges.spa


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