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dc.creatorKennedy, Deanna M.
dc.creatorZambrano, Gustavo José
dc.creatorWang, Yiyu
dc.creatorPinto Neto, Osmar
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-31T19:41:09Z
dc.date.available2020-07-31T19:41:09Z
dc.date.created2020-05-10
dc.identifier.issn1386-6532spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220301827?via%3Dihub#kwd0005spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11486
dc.format.extent7 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherJournal of Clinical Virologyeng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectMathematical modelingspa
dc.subjectCompartmental modelspa
dc.subjectIntervention strategiesspa
dc.subjectPandemicspa
dc.titleModeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamicsspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440spa
dc.description.abstractenglishObjectives To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Methods Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %). Results The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures). Conclusion If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available.spa


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