Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics
Fecha
2020-05-10Autor
Kennedy, Deanna M.
Zambrano, Gustavo José
Wang, Yiyu
Pinto Neto, Osmar
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Resumen en idioma extranjero
Objectives
To model the effects of continuous, intermittent, and stepping-down social distancing (SD) strategies and personal protection measures on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
Methods
Constant, intermittent, and stepping-down SD strategies were modeled at 4 mean magnitudes (5%, 10 %, 15 % and 20 %), 2 time windows (40-days, 80-days), and 2 levels of personal caution (30 % and 50 %).
Results
The stepping-down strategy was the best long-term SD strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping-down strategy also resulted in a reduction in total time required to SD over a two-year period by 6.5 % compared to an intermittent or constant SD strategy. An 80-day SD time-window was statistically more effective in maintaining control over the COVID-19 pandemic than a 40-day window. However, the results were dependent upon 50 % of people being cautious (engaging in personal protection measures).
Conclusion
If people exercise caution while in public by protecting themselves (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration) the magnitude and duration of SD necessary to maintain control over the pandemic can be reduced. Our models suggest that the most effective way to reduce SD over a two-year period is a stepping-down approach every 80 days. According to our model, this method would prevent a second peak and the number of intensive care units needed per day would be within the threshold of those currently available.
Palabras clave
Mathematical modeling; Compartmental model; Intervention strategies; PandemicEnlace al recurso
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220301827?via%3Dihub#kwd0005Colecciones
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