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dc.creatorUllah, Saif
dc.creatorKhan, Muhammad Altaf
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-31T19:31:42Z
dc.date.available2020-07-31T19:31:42Z
dc.date.created2020-07-03
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304720?via%3Dihub#!spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11483
dc.format.extent15 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons & Fractalseng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectNovel coronavirusspa
dc.subjectQuarantinespa
dc.subjectHospitalization/self-isolationspa
dc.subjectParameter estimationspa
dc.subjectGlobal sensitivity analysisspa
dc.subjectOptimal control theoryspa
dc.subjectNumerical resultsspa
dc.titleModeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of novel coronavirus with optimal control analysis with a case studyspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110075spa
dc.description.abstractenglishCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is the biggest public health challenge the world is facing in recent days. Since there is no effective vaccine and treatment for this virus, therefore, the only way to mitigate this infection is the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social-distancing, community lockdown, quarantine, hospitalization or self-isolation and contact-tracing. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the transmission dynamics and possible control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan, one of the Asian countries with a high burden of disease with more than 200,000 confirmed infected cases so far. Initially, a mathematical model without optimal control is formulated and some of the basic necessary analysis of the model, including stability results of the disease-free equilibrium is presented. It is found that the model is stable around the disease-free equilibrium both locally and globally when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Despite the basic analysis of the model, we further consider the confirmed infected COVID-19 cases documented in Pakistan from March 1, till May 28, 2020 and estimate the model parameters using the least square fitting tools from statistics and probability theory. The results show that the model output is in good agreement with the reported COVID-19 infected cases. The approximate value of the basic reproductive number based on the estimated parameters is . The effect of low (or mild), moderate, and comparatively strict control interventions like social-distancing, quarantine rate, (or contact-tracing of suspected people) and hospitalization (or self-isolation) of testing positive COVID-19 cases are shown graphically. It is observed that the most effective strategy to minimize the disease burden is the implementation of maintaining a strict social-distancing and contact-tracing to quarantine the exposed people. Furthermore, we carried out the global sensitivity analysis of the most crucial parameter known as the basic reproduction number using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) techniques. The proposed model is then reformulated by adding the time-dependent control variables u1(t) for quarantine and u2(t) for the hospitalization interventions and present the necessary optimality conditions using the optimal control theory and Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Finally, the impact of constant and optimal control interventions on infected individuals is compared graphically.spa


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