• español
    • English
    • português
  • English 
    • español
    • English
    • português
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
JavaScript esta deshabilitado en su navegador. Algunas características de este sitio no podrán funcionar o visualizarse correctamente sin JavaScript.
RecursosRecursos de apoyo¿Cómo publicar?

Browse

All of ExpeditioCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

View Usage StatisticsView Google Analytics Statistics
Estadísticas GTMVer Estadísticas GTM

Modeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of novel coronavirus with optimal control analysis with a case study

Thumbnail

Citación

       
Export: <XML METS>
View/Open
Documento Reservado (1.251Mb)
Fin embargo: 
Date
2020-07-03
Author
Ullah, Saif
Khan, Muhammad Altaf
Metadata
Show full item record
Documentos PDF
Summary in foreign language
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is the biggest public health challenge the world is facing in recent days. Since there is no effective vaccine and treatment for this virus, therefore, the only way to mitigate this infection is the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social-distancing, community lockdown, quarantine, hospitalization or self-isolation and contact-tracing. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the transmission dynamics and possible control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan, one of the Asian countries with a high burden of disease with more than 200,000 confirmed infected cases so far. Initially, a mathematical model without optimal control is formulated and some of the basic necessary analysis of the model, including stability results of the disease-free equilibrium is presented. It is found that the model is stable around the disease-free equilibrium both locally and globally when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Despite the basic analysis of the model, we further consider the confirmed infected COVID-19 cases documented in Pakistan from March 1, till May 28, 2020 and estimate the model parameters using the least square fitting tools from statistics and probability theory. The results show that the model output is in good agreement with the reported COVID-19 infected cases. The approximate value of the basic reproductive number based on the estimated parameters is . The effect of low (or mild), moderate, and comparatively strict control interventions like social-distancing, quarantine rate, (or contact-tracing of suspected people) and hospitalization (or self-isolation) of testing positive COVID-19 cases are shown graphically. It is observed that the most effective strategy to minimize the disease burden is the implementation of maintaining a strict social-distancing and contact-tracing to quarantine the exposed people. Furthermore, we carried out the global sensitivity analysis of the most crucial parameter known as the basic reproduction number using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) techniques. The proposed model is then reformulated by adding the time-dependent control variables u1(t) for quarantine and u2(t) for the hospitalization interventions and present the necessary optimality conditions using the optimal control theory and Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Finally, the impact of constant and optimal control interventions on infected individuals is compared graphically.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11483
Link to resource
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304720?via%3Dihub#!
Collections
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19 [2292]
Estadísticas Google Analytics
Comments

Respuesta Comentario Repositorio Expeditio

Gracias por tomarse el tiempo para darnos su opinión.


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas

 

 


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas