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dc.creatorDjilali, Salih
dc.creatorGhanbari, Behzad
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-30T16:03:40Z
dc.date.available2020-07-30T16:03:40Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11414
dc.description.abstractIn this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission. For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated.spa
dc.format.extent9 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeimage/jepgspa
dc.publisherChaos, Solitons and Fractalseng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectAge-structuredspa
dc.subjectSIR modelspa
dc.subjectBasic reproduction numberspa
dc.subjectPeak epidemicspa
dc.subjectComputational epidemiologyspa
dc.titleCoronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazilspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971spa


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