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Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak

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Date
2020-07-08
Author
Sardar, Tridip
Nadim, Sk Shahid
Rana, Sourav
Chattopadhyay, Joydev
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In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R0). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on R0. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (Rt) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.
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http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11247
Link to resource
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304756?via%3Dihub
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Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas