• español
    • English
    • português
  • English 
    • español
    • English
    • português
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Productos de Investigación - Creación
  • Repositorio Documental COVID-19
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
RecursosRecursos de apoyo¿Cómo publicar?

Browse

All of ExpeditioCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects
This CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

View Usage StatisticsView Google Analytics Statistics
Estadísticas GTMVer Estadísticas GTM

Applicability of time fractional derivative models for simulating the dynamics and mitigation scenarios of COVID-19

Thumbnail

Citación

       
Export: <XML METS>
View/Open
Documento reservado (3.368Mb)
Fin embargo: 
Date
2020-09
Author
Zhang, Yong
Yu, Xiangnan
Sun, Hong Guang
Tick, Geoffrey R.
Wei, Wei
Jin, Bin
Metadata
Show full item record
Documentos PDF
Summary in foreign language
Fractional calculus provides a promising tool for modeling fractional dynamics in computational biology, and this study tests the applicability of fractional-derivative equations (FDEs) for modeling the dynamics and mitigation scenarios of the novel coronavirus for the first time. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the evolution dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model was proposed and applied to fit and then predict the time series of COVID-19 evolution observed over the last three months (up to 3/22/2020) in China. The model results revealed that 1) the transmission, infection and recovery dynamics follow the integral-order SEIR model with significant spatiotemporal variations in the recovery rate, likely due to the continuous improvement of screening techniques and public hospital systems, as well as full city lockdowns in China, and 2) the evolution of number of deaths follows the time FDE, likely due to the time memory in the death toll. The validated SEIR model was then applied to predict COVID-19 evolution in the United States, Italy, Japan, and South Korea. In addition, a time FDE model based on the random walk particle tracking scheme, analogous to a mixing-limited bimolecular reaction model, was developed to evaluate non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate COVID-19 spread. Preliminary tests using the FDE model showed that self-quarantine may not be as efficient as strict social distancing in slowing COVID-19 spread. Therefore, caution is needed when applying FDEs to model the coronavirus outbreak, since specific COVID-19 kinetics may not exhibit nonlocal behavior. Particularly, the spread of COVID-19 may be affected by the rapid improvement of health care systems which may remove the memory impact in COVID-19 dynamics (resulting in a short-tailed recovery curve), while the death toll and mitigation of COVID-19 can be captured by the time FDEs due to the nonlocal, memory impact in fatality and human activities.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11239
Link to resource
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920303581?via%3Dihub
Collections
  • Documentos científicos relacionados a la COVID-19 [2292]
Estadísticas Google Analytics
Comments

Respuesta Comentario Repositorio Expeditio

Gracias por tomarse el tiempo para darnos su opinión.


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas

 

 


Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas