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dc.creatorZhang, Lei
dc.creatorTao, Yusha
dc.creatorWang, Jing
dc.creatorOng, Jason J.
dc.creatorTang, Weiming
dc.creatorZou, Maosheng
dc.creatorBai, Lu
dc.creatorDing, Miao
dc.creatorShen, Mingwang
dc.creatorZhuang, Guihua
dc.creatorFairley, Christopher K.
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-17T19:27:56Z
dc.date.available2020-07-17T19:27:56Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn1201-9712spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10791
dc.description.abstractObjectives: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predictits subsequent magnitude. Methods: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January–15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. Results: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6–6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3–7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2–1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. Conclusions: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.spa
dc.format.extent6 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectSARS-COV-2spa
dc.subjectEarly characteristicsspa
dc.subjectEpidemic sizespa
dc.titleEarly characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scopespa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.122spa


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