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dc.creatorKim, Young-Joo
dc.creatorHwan Seo, Myung
dc.creatorYeom, Hyun-E
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-17T18:55:40Z
dc.date.available2020-07-17T18:55:40Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn1201-9712spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.055spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10783
dc.description.abstractObjectives: Amid the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, South Korea has been lauded for successfully preventing the spread of this infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. This study was performed to evaluate the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea considering the potential impact of policy interventions on transmission rates. Methods: A SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) model with a breakpoint that allows a change in transmission rate at an unknown point was established. Estimated trajectories of COVID-19 from SIR models with and without a breakpoint were compared. Results: The proposed model with a break fitted the actual series of infection cases much better than the classic model. The estimated breakpoint was March 7, 2020 and the transmission rate dropped by 0.23 after the breakpoint. A counterfactual study based on our estimate indicated that the number of infected could have reached 2 500 000 compared to the peak of 8000 in the observed series. Conclusions: It is critical to consider a change in the transmission rate to evaluate the trajectory of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our estimation and counterfactual experiments indicate that public health interventions may play a role in determining the pattern of spread of infectious diseases.spa
dc.format.extent5 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectSIR modelspa
dc.subjectBreakpointspa
dc.subjectDisease transmissionspa
dc.subjectPublic healthspa
dc.subjectInterventionsspa
dc.titleEstimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Koreaspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.055spa


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