Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities
Date
2020Author
Saidan, Motasem N.
Shbool, Mohammad A.
Suleiman Arabeyyat, Omar
Al-Shihabi, Sameh T
Abdallat, Yousef Al
Barghash, Mahmoud A.
Saidan, Hakam
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Abstract
Background: The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number infected people
and trace the close contacts. The R0 values varies depending on social activity and type of gathering events
that induce infection transmissibility, in addition to its pathophysiology dependence.
Objectives: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 at clusters mathematically
using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases, as a function of time.
Methods: We proposed mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in the outbreak occurring in
both of local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious,
wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between
February and April 2020.
Results: The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events
(2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). This in return, shall enable us to assess the
trend coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. Conclusions: This study provides a predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different clusters types
based on different R0 values. This model offers the decision makers in the contact-tracing task the predicted
number of cases, which would help them in epidemiology investigations by knowing when to stop.
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.105Collections
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