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Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities

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Date
2020
Author
Saidan, Motasem N.
Shbool, Mohammad A.
Suleiman Arabeyyat, Omar
Al-Shihabi, Sameh T
Abdallat, Yousef Al
Barghash, Mahmoud A.
Saidan, Hakam
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Abstract
Background: The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number infected people and trace the close contacts. The R0 values varies depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility, in addition to its pathophysiology dependence. Objectives: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 at clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases, as a function of time. Methods: We proposed mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in the outbreak occurring in both of local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. Results: The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). This in return, shall enable us to assess the trend coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. Conclusions: This study provides a predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different clusters types based on different R0 values. This model offers the decision makers in the contact-tracing task the predicted number of cases, which would help them in epidemiology investigations by knowing when to stop.
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http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10780
Link to resource
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.105
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Carrera 4 # 22-61 Teléfono: (+57 1) 242 7030 - 018000111022 Fax: (+57 1) 561 2107 Bogotá D.C., Colombia

Fundación Universitaria de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | Vigilada Mineducación

Institución de educación superior privada, de utilidad común, sin ánimo de lucro y su carácter académico es el de Universidad.

Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 2613 del 14 de agosto de 1959 Minjusticia.

Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

 

Términos y condiciones | Políticas