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dc.creatorHu, Zengyun
dc.creatorCui, Qianqian
dc.creatorHan, Junmei
dc.creatorWang, Xia
dc.creatorSha, Wei E.I.
dc.creatorTeng, Zhidong
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-17T17:53:06Z
dc.date.available2020-07-17T17:53:06Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn1201-9712spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.010spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10775
dc.description.abstractIn this study, an epidemic model was developed to simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province which was focused on the period from Jan 27 to Feb 20, 2020. To explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies on the disease variations at different scenarios, four time points were assumed as Feb 6, Feb 16, Feb 24 and Mar 5 2020. The major results suggest that our model can well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The simulated peak value of the confirmed cases is 1002 at Feb 10, 2020 which is mostly close to the reported number of 1007 at Feb 9, 2020. The disease will become extinction with peak value of 1397 at May 11, 2020. Moreover, the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the increased percentages of the exposed individuals of the input population increase the number of cumulative confirmed cases at a small percentage. Increasing the input population and decreasing the quarantine strategy together around the time point of the peak value of the confirmed cases, may lead to the second outbreak.spa
dc.format.extent10 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)spa
dc.subjectGuangdong provincespa
dc.subjectPopulation migrationspa
dc.subjectQuarantine strategiesspa
dc.subjectScenario analysisspa
dc.titleEvaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, Chinaspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.010spa


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