Logistic growth modelling of COVID-19 proliferation in China and its international implications
Shen, Christopher Y.
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Objective: As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to proliferate globally, this paper shares the findings of modelling the outbreak in China at both provincial and national levels. This paper examines the applicability of the logistic growth model, with implications for the study of the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious diseases. Methods: An NLS (Non-Linear Least Squares) method was employed to estimate the parameters of a differentiated logistic growth function using new daily COVID-19 cases in multiple regions in China and in other selected countries. The estimation was based upon training data from January 20, 2020 to March 13, 2020. A restriction test was subsequently implemented to examine whether a designated parameter was identical among regions or countries, and the diagnosis of residuals was also conducted. The model's goodness of fit was checked using testing data from March 14, 2020 to April 18, 2020. Results: Themodelpresentedinthispaperfittedtime-seriesdata exceedingly wellfor thewholeofChina, its eleven selectedprovinces and municipalities, andtwo other countries - SouthKorea andIran - andprovided estimates of key parameters. This study rejectedthenull hypothesis thatthe growth rates of outbreakswere the same among ten selected non-Hubei provinces in China, as well as between South Korea and Iran. The study found that the model did not provide reliable estimates for countries that were in the early stages of outbreaks. Furthermore, this study concured that the R2 values might vary and mislead when compared between different portions of the same non-linear curve. In addition, the study identified the existence of heteroskedasticity and positive serial correlation within residuals in some provinces and countries. Conclusions: The findings suggestthatthere is potential for this modelto contribute to better public health policy in combatting COVID-19. The model does so by providing a simple logistic framework for retrospectively analyzing outbreaks in regions that have already experienced a maximal proliferation in cases. Based upon statistical findings, this study also outlines certain challenges in modelling and their implications for the results.
Link to resourcehttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.085
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