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dc.creatorRen, Hongyan
dc.creatorZhao, Lu
dc.creatorZhang, An
dc.creatorSong, Liuyi
dc.creatorLiao, Yilan
dc.creatorLu, Weili
dc.creatorCui, Cheng
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-16T14:31:27Z
dc.date.available2020-07-16T14:31:27Z
dc.date.created2020
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697spa
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138995spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10638
dc.description.abstractRecently, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide public health threat. Early and quick identification of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 infection is increasingly vital for the megacities implementing targeted infection prevention and control measures. In this study, the communities with confirmed cases during January 21–February 27 were collected and considered as the specific epidemic data for Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. We evaluated the spatiotemporal variations of the epidemics before utilizing the ecological niche models (ENM) to assemble the epidemic data and nine socioeconomic variables for identifying the potential risk zones of this infection in these megacities. Three megacities were differentiated by the spatial patterns and quantities of infected communities, average cases per community, the percentages of imported cases, as well as the potential risks, although their COVID-19 infection situations have been preliminarily contained to date. With higher risks that were predominated by various influencing factors in each megacity, the potential risk zones coverd about 75% to 100% of currently infected communities. Our results demonstrate that the ENM method was capable of being employed as an early forecasting tool for identifying the potential COVID-19 infection risk zones on a fine scale. We suggest that local hygienic authorities should keep their eyes on the epidemic in each megacity for sufficiently implementing and adjusting their interventions in the zones with more residents or probably crowded places. This study would provide useful clues for relevant hygienic departments making quick responses to increasingly severe epidemics in similar megacities in the world.spa
dc.format.extent8 páginasspa
dc.format.mimetypeimage/jepgspa
dc.publisherScience Directeng
dc.sourcereponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLspa
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozanospa
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectEcological niche modelspa
dc.subjectChina's megacitiesspa
dc.subjectRisk zonesspa
dc.subjectEarly forecastingspa
dc.titleEarly forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacitiesspa
dc.type.localArtículospa
dc.subject.lembSíndrome respiratorio agudo gravespa
dc.subject.lembCOVID-19spa
dc.subject.lembSARS-CoV-2spa
dc.subject.lembCoronavirusspa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.type.hasversioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138995spa


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