Scenario analysis for strategy design: A case study of the Colombian electricity industry

Abstract

The technology transformation of the power industry is crucial for electricity companies, which need to be prepared for the transition of their traditional business. Using scenario-planning exercises, combined with SWOT and PESTEL analysis, as well as a systems thinking approach, this paper explores potential strategies for electricity companies to grasp the opportunities and offset threats, by focusing on the formulation process for a broad, innovative strategy for the transition in the power business. The paper concludes that the transformation of the Colombian energy industry poses serious challenges to electricity companies when policy and regulation promote the adoption of non-conventional energy sources, at a time when the cost of renewables keep declining; however, with a robust adaptive strategy, companies could better face the transition from current business to new alternatives.